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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. During an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still